## Sampling and the Presidential Election, part 3 of 3.

In the first part of a three-part series, we talked about some basics with sampling, including some definitions. In the second part, we talked about various types of sampling. In this final installment, we will talk about the Presidential election polls, and important dynamics to consider when taking samples and making inferences. Before going further,…

## Part 2, Types of Sampling

This is the second of a three part series on sampling. The third part will come more quickly than the second part. 🙂 There are four types of sampling. Simple Random Sample, Stratified, Cluster, and Systematic. I will give a brief definition as well as an example for each. Simple random sample is the most…

## Trying to make sense of all of this

You sure do hear a lot of numbers flying around with respect to COVID-19. It is often hard to believe (or understand) what you hear from the media, as well as from the experts. What makes this complex is that there are many factors involved, and it is hard to tease out the importance of…

## Sampling

This is the first of a three-part installment on sampling and inferences made from sampling. As the Presidential race kicks into full gear (we hope it does anyway) we will see more and more polls come out as we get closer to election time. There is much debate about polls, even among experts. But to…

## The importance of definitions

Back in the 1980’s, Bill James, the pioneer in sabermetrics (which is the study of statistics in baseball) wrote an article that distinguished between a players’ value with respect to the peak of his career compared to his value regarding his career as a whole. Of course, most people at the time (or even now)…

## It’s all about probability (well, mostly)

There was a book written several years ago by astrophysicist Mario Livio called Is God a Mathematician? Of course, an astrophysicist (or any scientist) is going to be almost certain to think that God is a mathematician as opposed to say an English major or somebody who studies rocks. It seems kind of natural to…

## Another way of counting

https://www.news18.com/news/world/25000-missing-deaths-tracking-the-true-toll-of-the-coronavirus-crisis-in-11-countries-2587973.html My previous post was in regards to another way of counting. I figured it was a matter of time before somebody posted an article about it. The above article uses a method that I was espousing. Keep in mind, I was not suggesting that the current method was overstating or understating the number of…

## Update on COVID-19

It looks like the modelers have way overshot the original prediction. Before we get into that, let me explain some terms in the statistical world. First of all, there is the term, “statistics”, which is a very broad term, encompassing just about everything in the, well…… statistical…. world. A subset of statistics is ‘probability’, i.e.…

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